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,But here the thing.The stability of the Hong Kong / US dollar fault line is entirely due to politics.It stable because the Hong Kong government says that it stable.There is zero reflection of fundamental economic pressures in this exchange rate, because it is entirely a political creation.In 1995 Milton Friedman predicted that the currency could not survive the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to Beijing, a prediction that Jim Rogers has adopted as a policy prescription since 2007.In 2011 Bill Ackman famously went long the Hong Kong dollar, arguing that the fault line between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar could not withstand the inflation Hong Kong would be importing from the US (you can access a copy of Ackman 150-page slide presentation here).
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,People use money to make money - and put money where the most money can be made.That is why charts like the one below make as much sense as blaming austerity for the current market corrections.(click to enlarge)We are in the New Normal which has significantly different dynamics than the previous secular bull markets.Mostly this was the effect of the dollar strengthening as money flowed towards the USA to escape the weakening of other currencies.A rapidly strengthening dollar can be a sign of an impending USA recession - especially in a situation where the economy is relatively weak.(click to enlarge)It seems the last few days that global markets may have stabilized.
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,It leads to scarring, and wrestlers can sever an artery if they don't do it correctly.During a traffic stop, an officer can take several different actions that require different kinds of probable cause for them to be legal.He can also check the license plate number to see if the car is stolen or if there are arrest warrants out for the registered owner.If the car and its occupants fit a criminal profile, the officer can make a stop as long as he can describe specific factors that fit the profile.If the vehicle seems suspicious, the officer may just want to question the occupants, check their licenses against the department database and look inside the car.
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,It has since rebounded, but the share price is still below what it was in July.After all, research and development losses are an everyday occurrence at big pharmaceutical houses.Bristol-Myers has some other figures that look pretty good, including sales growth of 9% and income growth of 19% for the past year.That of course looks like a value buy, but what are Bristol-Myers' long term prospects?Negative Revenue Growth in Bristol-Myers' Immediate FutureThe truth is that they are very bad, and they are about to get a lot worse.The patent cliff is the drop in revenue that almost every member of the Big Pharma family is facing because of patent expiration.
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,Unfortunately, the forecast for the months ahead is not good.The following is what Goldman Sachs is saying about copper class="quote">"Though we have been bearish on copper on a 12-mo forward basis for the past two and a half years, we have maintained a more bullish medium to long-term stance on the assumption of Chinese copper demand growth of 4% per annum and a major slowing in supply growth around 2017/2018 we substantially lower our short, medium, and long-term copper price forecasts, on the back of lower Chinese copper demand growth forecasts (we have been highlighting that the risk has been skewed to the downside for some time), increased conviction in copper supply growth over the next three years, and increased conviction in the outlook for mining cost deflation in dollar terms."It is funny that Goldman mentioned China so prominently.
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