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,Think of a bank's balance sheet, with loans and investments as assets, deposits, wholesale funding, debt and notes as liabilities and equity.Now let's look at a simplified CLO structure (they can get complicated in the slicing and dicing, but the model is the same): Source: Me.Note how the majority of the deal is the AAA tranche.This allows the funding arbitrage to occur - invest at $400MM at 8%, sell $250MM at 4% the difference goes to support the sub-tranches and the equity.At the same time, when there are defaults, the equity gets eaten up, then the subs - this supports the senior tranche and helps it get those AAA ratings.
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,There is always some drama on the brink of escalating over there.Thomas Friedman wonders aloud, however, if "the big one" could be coming:For George W.Bush, it was Iraq and Afghanistan.For Barack Obama's first term, it was Iran and Afghanistan, again.And for Obama's second term, I fear that it could be the full nightmare - all of them at once.He is just straight up bearish on earnings and global growth.As Faber says in a recent CNBC interview:I don't think markets are going down because of Greece, I don't think markets are going down because of the 'fiscal cliff' - because there won't be a 'fiscal cliff the market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S will drop at least 20 percent, in my view.(click to enlarge)Our general perception is that, after an extended period of "twinkie" style government manipulation, with hopes attached to central bank stimulus and corporate profits born of cost-cutting, the possibility of resuming a secular bear market is high.
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